Round #173 · sports · Nov 5, 14:14 UTC

Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-11-05?

PASS

After weighing the market, a fair NO price is 13¢ and the cheapest NO costs 13¢: a 0-point edge. It needs 5, so the council skips it.

Market: 88%
Models pooled: 86%
After market blend: 87%
Edge: 0 pts
Stake: —

The models' numbers are pooled in log-odds, then blended with the market price. A bet needs the edge to clear the bar and at least one model arguing for that side on its own.

How each model voted

Each model read the same research and voted without seeing the others.

ClaudeAnthropic
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5 · 3.8s · $0.013
81%
73%–88%
- Bookmaker odds of about 1.18 imply roughly 82-83% for an Atalanta win
- Home game against a weak, first-time European opponent that lost 1-5 to Panathinaikos
- Atalanta injuries and poor form add some upset risk
GPTOpenAI
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · 7.2s · $0.013
81%
73%–88%
- Normalized bookmaker pricing implies an Atalanta regulation-win chance around the low 80s.
- Atalanta are at home and appear to hold a substantial squad and league-quality advantage over Kairat.
- Injuries, recent poor form, and the sizable draw probability prevent treating the match as close to certain.
GeminiGoogle· median of 3 samples
google/gemini-3.8-flash · 10.3s · $0.019
82%
74%–88%
- Bookmaker consensus prices Atalanta at approximately 1.17-1.18, reflecting an implied market probability of over 81% after stripping the bookmaker margin.
- Kairat Almaty showed severe defensive vulnerability in this campaign, notably suffering a 5-1 thrashing by Panathinaikos, and face a huge travel and quality disadvantage in Bergamo.
- Atalanta retain core attacking and midfield talent (e.g., De Ketelaere, Pasalic, Ederson, Samardzic) capable of dominating possession and creating chances even amid several squad injuries.
GrokxAI· argues the other side
x-ai/grok-4.7 · 25.4s · $0.026
79%
68%–88%
- Bookmaker prices after injuries and recent results still make Atalanta a heavy home favorite
- Kairat have already been beaten heavily in this competition and come from a much weaker league
- Only a 90-minute win counts, so the priced draw chance is a real No path
DeepSeekDeepSeek
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro · 18.7s · $0.005
78%
68%–85%
- Despite injuries, Atalanta's squad includes several established internationals and they are at home.
- Recent domestic results and multiple fitness concerns raise the chance of a draw or an upset.
- Kairat's heavy loss to Panathinaikos and the overall gap in European pedigree make Atalanta a clear favorite.

◎ Bookmaker odds (vig removed): 82% · legalbet.uk preview, futbol24 preview. An input to the council, not a vote of its own.

The research they read

Resolves YES if Atalanta BC wins the UEFA Conference League league-phase Matchday 3 match against Kairat Almaty (Stadio di Bergamo, scheduled 2026-11-05 17:45 UTC) on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not count.

Key facts

Fixture: Atalanta host Kairat Almaty in UEFA Conference League league-phase Matchday 3 at Stadio di Bergamo (New Balance Arena), scheduled 2026-11-05 17:45 UTC (18:45 CET). As of the latest available updates the match was listed as not started. · uefa.com · 2026-11-05
Atalanta named a 22-player squad. Listed available senior players include Carnesecchi, De Ketelaere, Éderson, Elmas, Krstović, Pašalić, Scamacca, Scalvini, Samardžić, Sulemana, Zalewski and Zappacosta. The official report did not designate a starting XI. · en.atalanta.it · 2026-11-05
Absences and fitness: Raspadori, Pompei, Hien and Kessié trained in the gym; Kolašinac and Kossounou trained individually; Gaetano, Bellanova and Kristensen received treatment. Injury list shows Kristensen, Gaetano, Bellanova, Raspadori, Kessié, Pompei, Kossounou and Scamacca with thigh, calf, muscle or broken-finger issues listed for mid to late November 2026. · en.atalanta.it · 2026-11-05
Injury list (BeSoccer) shows multiple Atalanta absences with return dates in mid-to-late November 2026, and Sulemana listed with an early-November knee injury; the squad list nonetheless includes Sulemana as available. · besoccer.com
European form: Atalanta beat Pafos 3-1 on October 15 and lost 2-0 away to Ajax on October 22. Kairat drew 1-1 with Riga and lost 5-1 to Panathinaikos. · uefa.com · 2026-11-05

Triage (Sage, Levanto): fresh info 84%, rules ambiguous 1%, predictable from public info 83%. This round cost $0.20 in AI and research, paid in CREDIT on Orbio.