Round #171 · mentions · Nov 5, 14:11 UTC

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?

PASS

After weighing the market, a fair NO price is 87¢ and the cheapest NO costs 85¢: a 1-point edge. It needs 5, so the council skips it.

Market: 15%
Models pooled: 12%
After market blend: 13%
Edge: 1 pts
Stake: —

The models' numbers are pooled in log-odds, then blended with the market price. A bet needs the edge to clear the bar and at least one model arguing for that side on its own.

How each model voted

Each model read the same research and voted without seeing the others.

ClaudeAnthropic
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5 · 4.5s · $0.014
22%
8%–38%
- Current pace of about 37 per day projects to roughly 250-260, near the bottom edge of the bucket
- Weekly totals vary widely, so probability spreads across several buckets
- The 59 figure is unverified and the trackers disagree
GPTOpenAI
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · 12.7s · $0.018
13%
6%–24%
- Conditional on the reported count of 59, the required remaining rate is 39 to 43 posts per day, close to the long-run mean but above the median.
- A 20-post-wide terminal bucket remains narrow relative to normal variation in Musk's weekly posting volume.
- The primary current count is not directly verified and conflicting trackers create meaningful uncertainty about both the starting count and applicable measurement.
GeminiGoogle· median of 3 samples
google/gemini-3.8-flash · 34.7s · $0.045
15%
8%–24%
- Reaching the 260-279 window requires 201 to 220 posts over the remaining 5.1 days (~39 to 43 per day), which aligns closely with his historical mean of 38.7 posts per day.
- His current pace in this window (~31 posts per day) projects to around 220-240 total posts, meaning he must accelerate posting activity to hit this bucket.
- A 20-post range is inherently narrow for a high-variance, clustered poster like Musk, where a single quiet or hyperactive day easily shifts the total by 20 to 40 posts.
GrokxAI· argues the other side
x-ai/grok-4.7 · 36.2s · $0.033
14%
5%–27%
- A 20-wide bucket is narrow relative to week-to-week posting variance, so even a well-centered bin is usually a miss.
- The reported 59 is a slow start versus 38.7 per day, putting the conditional expectation at or just under 260.
- Election commentary, Grok promotion, and the Nov 6 fireside chat are real upside bursts but do not reliably add the extra 40-50 posts needed.
DeepSeekDeepSeek
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro · 69.0s · $0.011
20%
10%–35%
- Current count of 59 posts in 1.88 days suggests a below-mean rate, lowering the expected total to ~257.
- Historical daily posting mean of 38.7 and median 33 imply the needed final total is feasible but not central.
- Recent high-engagement events (midterms, AI) and upcoming public appearance may boost remaining daily volume.

The research they read

Resolves YES if The XTracker Post Counter for @elonmusk, counting main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts from 12:00 PM ET on November 3, 2026 to 12:00 PM ET on November 10, 2026, shows a total between 260 and 279 inclusive when checked at the deadline.

Key facts

A search-grounded summary reports XTracker showing 59 posts for the Nov 3-10 window as of Nov 5, 2026. The exact timestamp is not given and the figure has not been checked directly against the tracker page. · xtracker.polymarket.com · 2026-11-05
The same summary reports 83 posts for Nov 2-4 and 256 posts for Oct 30 to Nov 6 on XTracker. The Oct 30 to Nov 6 window overlaps the target window and is not directly comparable. · xtracker.polymarket.com · 2026-11-05
A third-party analysis using XTracker data reports an average of 38.7 counted posts per day from Nov 1, 2025 to Oct 26, 2026, with a median of 33 per day and monthly averages from 27.2 to 68.9 per day. · rizon.markets · 2026-10-28
Musktracker daily counts for Oct 21 to Nov 3 are mostly 14 to 25, with a spike of 38 on Oct 30 and 3 on Nov 2. Later cached figures show 15 on Nov 3, 11 on Nov 4 and 1 on Nov 5 (partial day). Its inclusion rules differ from XTracker's. · musktracker.com · 2026-11-05
ElonTracker analytics show a 7-day total of 428 posts (daily average 53.5), a tweet-history daily average of 55.8 (range 40 to 103), and weekday averages of 60.0 versus weekend averages of 47.5. The tool's methodology is not independently established. · elon-tracker.com · 2026-11-05
The market rules count main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts. Replies are excluded except main-feed replies the tracker captures. XTracker's Post Counter is the primary resolution source, and X is secondary only if the tracker fails.

Triage (Sage, Levanto): fresh info 79%, rules ambiguous 10%, predictable from public info 11%. This round cost $0.16 in AI and research, paid in CREDIT on Orbio.