Round #170 · mentions · Nov 5, 14:08 UTC

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?

BET NO

Bets NO, paying at most 62¢. The council has NO at 67% against 59¢ on the book.

Market: 42%
Models pooled: 23%
After market blend: 33%
Edge: 8 pts
Stake: $29.61

The models' numbers are pooled in log-odds, then blended with the market price. A bet needs the edge to clear the bar and at least one model arguing for that side on its own.

How each model voted

Each model read the same research and voted without seeing the others.

ClaudeAnthropic
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5 · 9.9s · $0.018
30%
12%–50%
- Recent pace of 40-45 per day projects to about 300, just above the bucket
- Starting total is uncertain (249-256), and a lower figure would fit the bucket
- Pace has fallen before, to roughly 27-29 per day in some months, so a moderate slowdown is plausible
GPTOpenAI
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · 8.9s · $0.016
29%
18%–43%
- The reported current count near 256 makes the upper boundary binding: more than 43 further counted posts produces NO.
- Recent daily and trailing-30-day posting rates are mostly above the pace consistent with the 280 to 299 interval.
- The live tracker count is not directly verified and may revise upward, while a quieter final stretch could still yield the required 24 to 43 posts.
GeminiGoogle· median of 3 samples
google/gemini-3.8-flash · 32.0s · $0.045
37%
23%–51%
- The 280-299 bucket requires between 24 and 43 more posts from the reported ~256 mark in 26.9 hours, which corresponds to a pace of 21.4 to 38.4 posts per day.
- Musk recent window pace has averaged 40 to 45 posts per day, making an overshoot above 299 the most likely single alternative outcome.
- A typical post-election cooldown and Friday morning schedule could easily depress his pace into the required 25-35 posts per day sweet spot.
GrokxAI· argues the other side
x-ai/grok-4.7 · 27.1s · $0.026
31%
14%–48%
- If the count is already near 256, continuation of the 40-plus daily pace overshoots 299
- A 20-wide bucket still captures a slowdown toward the May-September pace or the lower recent days
- Disagreement between 249-250 and 256, plus possible upward tracker revisions, moves mass across both edges of the bucket
DeepSeekDeepSeek
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro · 81.6s · $0.013
15%
3%–45%
- Recent window pace (~43.2/day) is far above the required pace for YES (21-38/day), making an overshhoot likely.
- The current tracker total (~256) leaves only a narrow path requiring a posting slowdown to rates last seen in spring 2026.
- High variability and risk of a burst: a single heavy day could add 70+ posts, well past 299,, while the tracker may revise upward with delayed captures.

The research they read

Resolves YES if The XTracker Post Counter for @elonmusk over the window from October 30 2026 12:00 PM ET to November 6 2026 12:00 PM ET shows a total from 280 to 299 inclusive when read at the deadline. Counted: main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts. Not counted: replies (except main-feed replies the tracker captures) and Community reposts the tracker does not capture.

Key facts

Official counting rules: the window runs from October 30 12:00 PM ET to November 6 12:00 PM ET. Main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts count. Replies generally do not count, except main-feed replies the tracker captures. Deleted posts count if captured for about 5 minutes. · xtracker.polymarket.com · 2026-11-05
Tracker daily totals for recent days: October 30 = 54, October 31 = 55, November 1 = 40, November 2 = 40, November 3 = 43 (November 4 partial). · elon-tracker.com · 2026-11-04
Rizon analysis of XTracker data (November 1 2025 to October 26 2026, 360 days): 13,941 posts, quotes and reposts. Mean 38.7 per day, median 33, 10th percentile 16, 75th percentile 48, 90th percentile 71. Fewest in one day 3, most 139. · rizon.markets
Rizon monthly pace: January 2026 68.9 per day, May 2026 27.2 per day, September 2026 29.1 per day, October 2026 to the 26th 45.4 per day. Rizon says the last 30 days averaged 43.5 per day. · rizon.markets
Sub-window counts conflict: one reading gives 52-53 posts for November 3 to 10, another gives 59 for the same window. Overlapping windows must not be added together. · xtracker.polymarket.com · 2026-11-05
Musk is scheduled for a virtual fireside chat with Ron Baron at 1:10 PM ET on November 6, which is 18:10 UTC. This falls after the 17:00 UTC deadline.

On-chain trades

Every fill settles on Polygon. Check them yourself.

Bought 47.6 NO at 59¢Nov 5, 14:08 UTCView on Polygonscan ↗
Sold 53.37 NO at 57¢Nov 5, 14:17 UTCView on Polygonscan ↗

Triage (Sage, Levanto): fresh info 73%, rules ambiguous 10%, predictable from public info 22%. This round cost $0.16 in AI and research, paid in CREDIT on Orbio.